The picture of mass cross-border climate migration is not correct. According to NRC journalist Paul Luttikhuis citing migration researcher Ingrid Boas in a Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad in October 2018.
According to Boas, leaving somewhere to never return is an extreme move. When people have to leave their home, they return as soon as possible. And if departure is ultimately inevitable, people will go to nearby regions and will not migrate internationally. She bases her studies on areas in Bangladesh where climate change increasingly influences daily life.
The figure of more than 200 million climate refugees in 2050 (by Norman Myers) is, according to critics, ‘guesswork’. It assumes that people are more willing to leave a country than they actually are.
Right now, in the middle of the winter, we have almost forgotten how extremely dry and hot the summer in Europe was. In July more than 74 people died in a single fire in Greece. Heat waves caused forest fires from Spain to Norway and from Greece to Latvia.
The number of forest fires in Sweden may be exemplary: At the end of July 2018, around 80 forest fires raged in Sweden and a total of 30,000 hectares were burned. That was twice as much as the record year 2014, more than 10 times as much as normal and the most extensive since the 19th century. Summer temperatures in Sweden typically hit the low 20s; in the summer of 2018 there was a heat wave with temperatures of over 30 degrees Celsius.
In contrast to the actual situation last summer, a European research agency (the Joint Research Center) predicts an increase in forest fires in the Mediterranean region, but not in Scandinavia.